Cumulative Vote Share (CVS) analysis of the June 7, 2022 Primary elections in Montana are publicly available here. The spreadsheet files are Microsoft Excel files that anyone can download for their own use. The CVS charts are PNG image files.
The Montana Congressional Primaries are example of elections that are probably not rigged.
There’s a lot of variability as the smaller counties/precincts are added to the cumulative vote total. That smooths out as more jurisdictions are included in the cumulative total.
The only thing I would call your attention to are the charts of the Cumulative Vote Share (CVS) Analysis at the precinct level with all the precincts in the entire Congressional District included. There are some puzzling results. The District 1 Republican primary shows a continuous rise for Mitch Heuer and a corresponding decrease for Ryan K. Zinke. Does anyone have any thoughts on how that happened?
In the District 2 Democratic primary, Penny Ronning shows a fairly steady gain from the smaller to the larger precincts compared with her two opponents.
The District 2 Libertarian primary is a nearly classic example of what you expect to see in the CVS of a completely honest election.
The District 2 Republican election shows a steady fall in Matt Rosendale’s percentage with a corresponding rise for Kyle Austin and James Boyette. I have no idea why.
None of these trends could possibly change the outcome of the primary elections. That could change in a close election in November. It would be useful to know what people who live in Montana’s 2nd Congressional District think about it.
Results by County
The Microsoft Excel spreadsheet with the results of the Cumulative Vote Share Analysis can be downloaded with the link DOWNLOAD
CVS Analysis takes you to a gallery of charts of the five elections on June 7. You can save the images to your computer from the web browser.
Results by Precinct
The Microsoft Excel spreadsheet with the results of the Cumulative Vote Share Analysis of the votes by precinct can be downloaded with this link: DOWNLOAD. There are five links – one for each election. You can view the spreadsheet by clicking on the file name. Then if you want to download the spreadsheet, use the button below the file name.
Charts of the CVS analysis of each of the five elections can be seen in the gallery here.
All Precincts
For this Cumulative Vote Share Analysis, all the precincts participating in an election are included regardless of which county they are in. There is a spreadsheet for each of the five elections in the primary. They can be downloaded from here.
A Gallery of charts of the CVS Analysis for All Precincts in an election is available here.
Source Files
Election results were taken from the MONTANA SECRETARY OF STATE site, and can be found starting from 2022 Primary Election June 7, 2022 and taking the link to FED Federal elections.
There is a light gray EXPORT button at the top of each race. If you click that it will show a drop-down list for “Precinct Level” and “County Level”.
The “County Level” link will download a file named “FED Results County.xlsx” which is an Excel spreadsheet.
The “Precinct Level” link downloads a file named “FED Results Precinct.xlsx” which is an Excel spreadsheet with one for each county in the Congressional District for that election.
